Housing Market Regains Momentum, Providing a Strong Handoff into Summer Canada’s housing market gained meaningful momentum in May, with sales posting their strongest monthly increase of the year and leading indicators pointing to further improvement in June. After months of uncertainty, the market appears to be transitioning from stabilization to recovery as lower borrowing costs, […]

Canada’s Economy Edges Into A Technical Recession For the First Time Since 2020 Statistics Canada reported this morning that the Canadian economy contracted slightly, by 0.1%, at a seasonally adjusted annual rate in the first quarter (Q1) of 2026. That follows a 1% contraction in the fourth quarter, a downward revision from the previously reported […]

Canadian Inflation Surges to 2.4% Y/Y on Oil Price Shock The headline inflation rate in Canada surged as expected with the War in Iran and the resulting oil price shock. The inflation rate hit 2.4%, up from 1.8% in February, tying for the highest in a year but a bit below market expectations of 2.5%. […]

The Canadian Economy Shrinks by 0.6% in Q4, Owing to a Decline in Business Inventories Statistics Canada reported this morning that the Canadian economy contracted by 0.6% at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, a significant reversal from the 2.4% expansion posted in Q3. The weaker growth rate reflected a steep decline in business inventories, which […]

Housing Activity Fell Again in January–Depressed by Record Winter Storm Today’s release of January housing data by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) showed the housing market frozen solid by the record winter storms. Both home sales and prices continued their downward trend, but have yet to attract the beleaguered first-time homebuyer. The number of […]

CPI Inflation in Canada Fell A Tick to 2.3% Y/Y in January on Gasoline Price Decline The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.3% on a year-over-year basis in January, following a 2.4% increase in December. The gasoline price index was the largest contributor to the deceleration in headline inflation, with a larger decline in January […]

Canadian Jobs Growth Slowed Markedly in January as the Unemployment Rate Fell Sharply to 6.5%. Today’s Canadian Labour Force Survey for January was weaker than expected. Employment declined by 24,800 (-0.1%), and the employment rate decreased 0.1 percentage points to 60.8%. This followed only a small gain in December and was the first decline in […]

Housing Activity Fell in December, Rounding Out A Disappointing Year Last weeks release of December housing data by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) showed the market ended 2025 with declining sales and prices due to ongoing economic uncertainty. The number of home sales recorded over Canadian MLS® Systems declined 2.7% m/m in December. On […]

Canadian Job Growth Slows Markedly in December as the Unemployment Rate Rises to 6.8% Today’s Canadian Labour Force Survey for December was weaker than expected. Employment was little changed (+8200; 0.0%), and the employment rate held steady at 60.9%. This followed three consecutive monthly increases. The jobless rate rose 0.3 percentage points to 6.8%, as […]

Good News on the Inflation Front Will Keep the BoC on the Sidelines The Consumer Price Index (CPI) held steady at 2.2% year over year in November, as core inflation continued to ease. Accelerating costs for food and some other goods were offset by slowing price growth for services. In November, prices for services rose […]